Monday, April 2, 2012

What are the Odds of Beating the Odds?



I’m sure everyone has experienced all this talk about the lottery this past week.  The Mega Millions was up to $640 million, a world-record.  My friends and I rushed to a local BP to buy our tickets… but what are the odds we’d actually win?  Most of my friends are pretty pessimistic about the lottery, but I always think “what if”… I mean, someone has to win.



Everyone knows that the probability of winning the lottery is a very long, long shot.  However, I never really thought carefully about it.  While experiencing the hype from this lottery, I researched what the odds are.  I found that single state lotteries usually have the odds of about 18 million to 1, while multiple state lotteries have odds of around 120 million to 1.  Basically, we have no shot.  We are more likely to get struck by lightening or die from flesh-eating bacteria than win the lottery.

When you buy a lottery ticket, I’m sure everyone has had that slight hope that they’ll be the lucky one to beat the odds- I know I have.  Although the odds are not in anyone’s favor, the lottery really is a game.  Everyone wants that one prize.  We are hoping that we’ll be able to beat out everyone else.  Although the odds are not in our favor, there’s always that slight, one out of 18 and 120 million, possibility that we may win.


-Brooke Kranz

  

2 comments:

  1. So, I happen to be one of those "pessimistic friends" that you dragged to BP the other night, and I'm not going to deny it - I am pessimistic about it, but it's only because of the horrible odds you just previously stated!

    To be honest, naturally, I do sometimes wonder: "what if?" However, for me, I would just rather partake in another type of game where my odds are higher. In my psych 280 class, we have been discussing the concept of the social exchange theory. This is the social psychological and sociological perspective that measures stability and social change in terms of costs and rewards. In order for social change to come about, a person's rewards must outweigh their costs. In the case of the lottery, I simply do not think that my rewards balance out the costs. I definitely see the lottery as a game and form of play. The feeling I get when I hold my ticket up against the winning one is an extremely exhilarating one. However, in the end, I would just rather choose a game that is not as costly for me. To conclude, I'm sorry to say that I was and still am that pessimistic friend.

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  2. I happen to believe in the luck of the draw and think this is a worthwhile game! While I would never spend a ton of money buying lottery tickets, I don't think the small change you pay on these lottery tickets is going to hurt anyone's pocket who is buying these tickets in the first place. With that being sad, why not play the game and take that tiny chance for that tiny amount of money that you will become a millionaire?

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